Potential Deforestation Post- Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia

In 2020, Indonesia, like other countries in the world, has suffered Covid-19 pandemic. The virus was first identified in Wuhan, China in late 2019. The coronavirus has remarkable high transmission between human which caused such aggressive spread of the virus. The virus is transmitted through droplets during cough and sneeze (Susilo et al. 2020). In March 2nd 2020, Joko Widodo as Indonesian president has announced the first case and per August 25h 2020, the case number has reached 155,000.

One of the biggest impacts of PSBB was the decreasing economic growth. Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani stated that PSBB has strike financial system and national economy. It is worth to note that economic growth In the first quarter has dropped to 2.97% from the last position last year which was 4.9%. Further contraction indicator (decreasing economic aggregate) was shown by national tax revenue of 2.5% in this year first quarter. Meanwhile the deficit has reached 852 trillion rupiahs or equal to 5.07% PDB.

With the decline of economic growth and national deficit, revenue from forestry and energy sectors would have to be boosted to cover the financial lost. As previously happened in 1997-1998 monetary crisis when the economic growth was -13.8% and all economic sectors suffered negative growth except for agriculture, livestock, fishery, forestry, and energy (Susilo, 2002), which implied that these sectors survived despite the monetary crisis. Deforestation in the early reformation era (1996-2000) reached 2.83 million ha (KLHK, 2018) to boost the economy after crises trough illegal logging, palm oil and industrial plantation expansions, hundreds of HPH issuance, and other forestry problems which pushed the government through Minister of Forestry to issue new policies such as law No. 41/1999, The People’s Consultative Assembly resolution  (Tap MPR) on land and nature resources, wood/logging certificate, and other policies.

Policy to boost national income from forestry would threaten natural forest existence, from excessive logging to forest conversion. Land-base investment would likely to be accelerated to help recover the national economic growth and deficit. With all the problems that Indonesia is currently facing, from pandemic to economic decline, a thorough study is vital to analyze how the current policies affect deforestation after the pandemic to boost economic growth.

covid-19

In this study, FWI analyzed the economic dynamics from forestry and logging in Indonesia in the perspective to help recover the economic growth and the continuity of national commitment on global emission. Spatial model based on CLUEs was used to observe the shift on land cover due to socioeconomic pressure and also the environment from 2000 to 2050. The aims of this study are:

  • To calculate the ration of contribution to economic growth and deforestation rate based on historical data.
  • To observe the relationship between land use shift or deforestation and economic growth contribution
  • To simulate future deforestation dynamics in Indonesia based on national contribution to climate change (NDC) based on the dynamic shift in land cover.

In this research, some driving factors in land covering that used in the model are: elevation, slope, nearest distance from road,a nd deforestation risk level based on the forest area function. Elevation and slope are the natural factors that affects the land covering change, especially in accessibility aspect. Those both topography factors also the natural barrier from the ecosystem type in study area. Previous study stated that the topography information (i. e. slope and elevation) is a factor that has strong affection to land changing. Besides that, the nearest distance from road network is the main factor which affects land usage change from anthropogenic activity. It represents human accessibility in ding land cover change, especially from the natural ecosystem (forest) to be built up land (man-made). The high accessibility (i.e. near from road) triggered changing opportunity for land usage type become relatively thigh. Some research also showed that road network has strong affection towards land changing, especially related with deforestation (Gaveau et al. 2009; Estrada et al. 2017; Condro et al. 2019; Vilela et al. 2020). Forest area function also used in the modeling for catching the general government’s policy to do natural forest clearing in Indonesia. In this research, we try to classify the forest area function to become land deforestation in high level. Herewith the detailed information of Indonesian deforestation risk classification by Indonesian forest area function.

Potential Deforestation Post-Covid -19 pandemic in Indonesia
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